SBTi and Forward Looking Ambition
The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) line in Viable is a benchmark pathway. It is not a forecast of your inventory. Forward Looking Ambition (FLA) tightens Scope 1 and 2 when the target base year is not the latest historic year.
Annual rates
Near-term SBTi alignment uses a constant annual decrease from the target base year. 1.5 °C uses 4.2% per year. Well-below 2 °C (WB2) uses 2.5% per year.
Those rates apply to Scope 1 and Scope 2. Scope 3 uses the same pair of rates when you select that Scope 3 ambition.
Net-zero alignment in this model is a 90% decrease in absolute emissions by 2050 versus the base year. The remaining 10% is outside this benchmark line.
Compare BAU, plus-trends, and plus-actions against this line. Pathway Solver can size actions to a selected milestone. It does not invent the SBTi line.
When FLA applies
FLA applies when the target base year is not the latest historic year in the inventory. Example: base year 2018, latest historic year 2024.
Reduction to date (RTD) is one minus latest-year emissions divided by base-year emissions. Example: 1000 tCO₂e in 2018 and 750 tCO₂e in 2024 gives RTD of 25%.
The FLA adjustment uses RTD, the near-term target year, 2050, and the unadjusted target. The aim is a 90% decrease by 2050 on Scope 1 and 2. Early decrease does not let the near-term target sit still.
FLA does not apply to Scope 3. Results can show the adjusted line and the unadjusted line. The adjusted line is the primary SBTi pathway.
Example: 2018 base, 2024 latest, 2030 near term
Base-year emissions are 1000 tCO₂e. Move latest-year emissions. Toggle 1.5 °C versus WB2, and FLA on or off.
Related: intensity vs absolute targets, projections, and AASB S2.