Fuelgaseous Stationary Naturalgas(Pipeline)Metro emission factor trends — Australia
Activity unit
In Australia, the emission factor for natural gas has not changed in recent years, however recent pilot studies alongside the Energy Networks Australia 20% RGT (renewable gas target) means our projection is for a very modest reduction by 2030.
- Category
- Fuel
- Geography
- Australia
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kWh
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 0.0% | -1.4% | -3.8% |
| 2026 | 0.0% | -2.9% | -7.7% |
| 2027 | 0.0% | -4.3% | -11.5% |
| 2028 | 0.0% | -5.7% | -15.4% |
| 2029 | 0.0% | -7.1% | -19.2% |
| 2030 | 0.0% | -8.6% | -23.1% |
| 2031 | 0.0% | -9.4% | -26.9% |
| 2032 | 0.0% | -10.2% | -30.8% |
| 2033 | 0.0% | -11.0% | -34.6% |
| 2034 | 0.0% | -11.8% | -38.5% |
| 2035 | 0.0% | -12.7% | -42.3% |
| 2036 | 0.0% | -13.5% | -46.2% |
| 2037 | 0.0% | -14.3% | -50.0% |
| 2038 | 0.0% | -15.1% | -53.8% |
| 2039 | 0.0% | -15.9% | -57.7% |
| 2040 | 0.0% | -16.8% | -61.5% |
| 2041 | 0.0% | -17.6% | -65.4% |
| 2042 | 0.0% | -18.4% | -69.2% |
| 2043 | 0.0% | -19.2% | -73.1% |
| 2044 | 0.0% | -20.0% | -76.9% |
| 2045 | 0.0% | -20.9% | -80.8% |
| 2046 | 0.0% | -21.7% | -84.6% |
| 2047 | 0.0% | -22.5% | -88.5% |
| 2048 | 0.0% | -23.3% | -92.3% |
| 2049 | 0.0% | -24.1% | -96.2% |
| 2050 | 0.0% | -25.0% | -100.0% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BioEnergyAus_Biomethanereplacement
An ambitious scenario that Australia replaces natural gas with biomethane by 2050, This follows progress in Denmark, where they have ambitious plans to fully replace natural gas with biomethane by 2035. Pilots have begun in New South Wales at Malabar Biomethane project facility. |
BioEnergy Australia
In Denmark, there are ambitious plans to fully replace natural gas with biomethane by 2035. While Australia has not committed to any targets, pilots have begun where Biomethane produced using wastewater is now being injected directly into the New South Wales gas distribution network. Frontier Economics (2021) produced a study concluding there are cost savings compared to electrification of heat for consumers. An ambitious scenario is that Australia replaces natural gas with biomethane by 2050, which would reduce the emission factor from 0.1855 in 2024 to 0.0 in 2050. |
forecast | unrealistic | 2.837145650659763 |
|
NoChange
The historic DCCEEW emission factor for natural gas consumption has remained unchanged since 2023. |
DCCEEW
The historic DCCEEW emission factor for natural gas consumption has remained unchanged since 2023 at 51.53 kgCO2e/GJ |
historic | base | 1 |
|
ENA_RGT2030
According to the 2030 Emissions Reduction Opportunities for Gas Networks paper (by ENEA Consulting for ENA in 2021), a Renewable Gas Target (RGT) of 20 per cent could achieve a 16 to 30 per cent reduction in emissions from domestic gas use by 2030. |
ENEA Consulting for ENA
One scenario proposed by Energy Networks Australia is for a Renewable Gas Target (RGT) of 20 per cent in 2030, largely through biomethane replacement. This would cut the emission factor from 0.1855 in 2024 to 0.1484 in 2030. |
forecast | ambitious | 3.3338239638708353 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2, a no change scenario year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source3 from ENEA Consulting for ENA (forecast) year=2021, pedigree_score=3.3338239638708353.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving fuelgaseous stationary naturalgas(pipeline)metro decarbonisation in Australia?
In Australia, the emission factor for natural gas has not changed in recent years, however recent pilot studies alongside the Energy Networks Australia 20% RGT (renewable gas target) means our projection is for a very modest reduction by 2030.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
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