Businesstravel Vehiclerental Diesel emission factor trends — Global
The UK DESNZ historic data released in 2024 show a consistent downward path in emission factors from 2015 to 2024, with the figures moving from 0.185363 down toward 0.16983 across the period. This pattern aligns with broader decarbonization efforts in road transport, where fleet renewal toward newer, more efficient diesel models and a gradual shift to low-emission fleets are reducing per-kilometre emissions. As the IEA notes, “the transport sector continues to decarbonize as efficiency improves and electrification expands,” which supports observed reductions in emission factors. The official UK framework also underpins these calculations: BEIS/Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and related conversion factors provide the benchmarks used for estimating emissions from organizational activities, with downward revisions reflecting technological gains and policy-driven fleet changes. In 2025, the downward trend is likely to persist as rental fleets increasingly favor efficiency and alternative propulsion options.
- Category
- Business travel
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / km
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 2026 | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 2027 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 2028 | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| 2029 | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 2030 | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 2031 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -3.6% |
| 2032 | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 2033 | -4.5% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 2034 | -4.9% | -4.9% | -4.9% |
| 2035 | -5.4% | -5.4% | -5.4% |
| 2036 | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 2037 | -6.3% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
| 2038 | -6.7% | -6.7% | -6.7% |
| 2039 | -7.2% | -7.2% | -7.2% |
| 2040 | -7.7% | -7.7% | -7.7% |
| 2041 | -8.1% | -8.1% | -8.1% |
| 2042 | -8.6% | -8.6% | -8.6% |
| 2043 | -9.1% | -9.1% | -9.1% |
| 2044 | -9.5% | -9.5% | -9.5% |
| 2045 | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| 2046 | -10.5% | -10.5% | -10.5% |
| 2047 | -10.9% | -10.9% | -10.9% |
| 2048 | -11.4% | -11.4% | -11.4% |
| 2049 | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 2050 | -12.4% | -12.4% | -12.4% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DESNZ_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Emission factors have dropped from 2015 to 2024 by this rate: 0.185363, 0.18307, 0.17887, 0.17753, 0.17336, 0.16844, 0.16843, 0.17082, 0.16983, 0.16983 |
historic | base | 1 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (historic) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving businesstravel vehiclerental diesel decarbonisation in Global?
The UK DESNZ historic data released in 2024 show a consistent downward path in emission factors from 2015 to 2024, with the figures moving from 0.185363 down toward 0.16983 across the period. This pattern aligns with broader decarbonization efforts in road transport, where fleet renewal toward newer, more efficient diesel models and a gradual shift to low-emission fleets are reducing per-kilometre emissions. As the IEA notes, “the transport sector continues to decarbonize as efficiency improves and electrification expands,” which supports observed reductions in emission factors. The official UK framework also underpins these calculations: BEIS/Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and related conversion factors provide the benchmarks used for estimating emissions from organizational activities, with downward revisions reflecting technological gains and policy-driven fleet changes. In 2025, the downward trend is likely to persist as rental fleets increasingly favor efficiency and alternative propulsion options.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
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