Freighting goods emission factor trends

External decarbonisation trends for freighting goods activities — curated sources, uncertainty ranges, and pathway-ready projections.

• Global

  Freightinggoods Road Hgvdiesel emission factor trends — Global

  Across all geographies, the road freight emission factor for heavy goods vehicles (diesel) per kilometre is shaped by engine efficiency, fleet turnover, and load factors. UK DESNZ BEIS historic data for HGV diesel show a trend from 2015 to 2024: 0.92797 (2015), 0.91484 (2016), 0.87029 (2017), 0.87287 (2018), 0.88025 (2019), 0.8654 (2020), 0.86407 (2021), 0.89061 (2022), 0.89061 (2023), 0.89061 (2024). In broad terms, this reflects early gains in efficiency from newer engines and drivetrain improvements, followed by a plateau as fleets mature and freight demand evolves. As the IEA notes, 'freight transport remains a significant challenge to decarbonize' (IEA, 2023), underscoring why per-kilometre emission factors can shift with technology adoption and policy changes.

• Global

  Freightinggoods Sea Container emission factor trends — Global

  Globally, the emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container in the freightinggoods category has moved only modestly from 2018 to 2024, effectively remaining flat with a tiny net decrease, a pattern noted by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (UK DESNZ, 2024). The 2025 forecast, however, signals a markedly different trajectory for all geographies as policy progress and market responses in international shipping mature. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) projects meaningful emissions reductions through 2030 and 2035 under its Direct Compliance Scenario, with reductions of about 21% by 2030 and 44% by 2035 relative to 2024 levels, indicating a shift from pure efficiency gains to price signals and fuel standards (IMO, 2025). This revised outlook rests on a trio of policy and market factors: (1) the IMO’s ongoing tightening of the policy framework, including drafting a mandatory global marine fuel standard and introducing GHG emissions pricing for shipping (IMO, 2025); (2) continued deployment of efficiency measures such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and slow steaming, which reduce fuel intensity; and (3) expanded use of marginal biofuel blends and other low-emission fuels as part of the decarbonization pathway (IMO, 2025). Collectively, these drivers explain why the global emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container is forecast to decline more substantially over 2025–2035 than the modest changes suggested by 2018–2024 data.

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