Freightinggoods Road Hgvdiesel emission factor trends — Global
Across all geographies, the road freight emission factor for heavy goods vehicles (diesel) per kilometre is shaped by engine efficiency, fleet turnover, and load factors. UK DESNZ BEIS historic data for HGV diesel show a trend from 2015 to 2024: 0.92797 (2015), 0.91484 (2016), 0.87029 (2017), 0.87287 (2018), 0.88025 (2019), 0.8654 (2020), 0.86407 (2021), 0.89061 (2022), 0.89061 (2023), 0.89061 (2024). In broad terms, this reflects early gains in efficiency from newer engines and drivetrain improvements, followed by a plateau as fleets mature and freight demand evolves. As the IEA notes, 'freight transport remains a significant challenge to decarbonize' (IEA, 2023), underscoring why per-kilometre emission factors can shift with technology adoption and policy changes.
- Category
- Freighting goods
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / km
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2026 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2027 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2028 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2029 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2030 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2031 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2032 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2033 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2034 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2035 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2036 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2037 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2038 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2039 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2040 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2041 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2042 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2043 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2044 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2045 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2046 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2047 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2048 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2049 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 2050 | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DESNZ_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
From 2015 to 2024, the emission factor for HGV Delivery vehicles all diesel) at average laden per km has changed thus: 0.92797 0.91484 0.87029 0.87287 0.88025 0.8654 0.86407 0.89061 0.89061 0.89061 |
historic | base | 1 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (historic) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving freightinggoods road hgvdiesel decarbonisation in Global?
Across all geographies, the road freight emission factor for heavy goods vehicles (diesel) per kilometre is shaped by engine efficiency, fleet turnover, and load factors. UK DESNZ BEIS historic data for HGV diesel show a trend from 2015 to 2024: 0.92797 (2015), 0.91484 (2016), 0.87029 (2017), 0.87287 (2018), 0.88025 (2019), 0.8654 (2020), 0.86407 (2021), 0.89061 (2022), 0.89061 (2023), 0.89061 (2024). In broad terms, this reflects early gains in efficiency from newer engines and drivetrain improvements, followed by a plateau as fleets mature and freight demand evolves. As the IEA notes, 'freight transport remains a significant challenge to decarbonize' (IEA, 2023), underscoring why per-kilometre emission factors can shift with technology adoption and policy changes.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
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