Freightinggoods Sea Container emission factor trends — Global
Globally, the emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container in the freightinggoods category has moved only modestly from 2018 to 2024, effectively remaining flat with a tiny net decrease, a pattern noted by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (UK DESNZ, 2024). The 2025 forecast, however, signals a markedly different trajectory for all geographies as policy progress and market responses in international shipping mature. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) projects meaningful emissions reductions through 2030 and 2035 under its Direct Compliance Scenario, with reductions of about 21% by 2030 and 44% by 2035 relative to 2024 levels, indicating a shift from pure efficiency gains to price signals and fuel standards (IMO, 2025). This revised outlook rests on a trio of policy and market factors: (1) the IMO’s ongoing tightening of the policy framework, including drafting a mandatory global marine fuel standard and introducing GHG emissions pricing for shipping (IMO, 2025); (2) continued deployment of efficiency measures such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and slow steaming, which reduce fuel intensity; and (3) expanded use of marginal biofuel blends and other low-emission fuels as part of the decarbonization pathway (IMO, 2025). Collectively, these drivers explain why the global emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container is forecast to decline more substantially over 2025–2035 than the modest changes suggested by 2018–2024 data.
- Category
- Freighting goods
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / tonne.km
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 0.0% | -1.1% | -3.5% |
| 2026 | 0.0% | -2.2% | -7.0% |
| 2027 | -0.1% | -3.3% | -10.5% |
| 2028 | -0.1% | -4.4% | -14.0% |
| 2029 | -0.1% | -5.4% | -17.5% |
| 2030 | -0.1% | -6.5% | -21.0% |
| 2031 | -0.1% | -8.4% | -25.6% |
| 2032 | -0.1% | -10.3% | -30.2% |
| 2033 | -0.1% | -12.1% | -34.8% |
| 2034 | -0.1% | -14.0% | -39.4% |
| 2035 | -0.2% | -15.8% | -44.0% |
| 2036 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2037 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2038 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2039 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2040 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2041 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2042 | -0.2% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2043 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2044 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2045 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2046 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2047 | -0.3% | -16.7% | -44.0% |
| 2048 | -0.4% | -16.8% | -44.0% |
| 2049 | -0.4% | -16.8% | -44.0% |
| 2050 | -0.4% | -16.8% | -44.0% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DESNZ_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
From 2018 to 2024, emission factors have changed very little: 0.016143, 0.016142, 0.016142, 0.016142, 0.01614, 0.01612, 0.01612 |
historic | base | 1 |
|
IMO_BaseTarget
IMO published a report on the future of shipping in 2025, which included a modest scenario for carbon costs above a defined roadmap of reductions. |
International Maritime Organization
In April 2025, the IMO agreed to draft regulations that will set mandatory marine fuel standard and GHG emissions pricing for shipping. Under the Base Target Scenario, whereby most emissions remain unpriced, and efficiency gains largely from technical and operational measures (EEXI, slow steaming, marginal biofuel blend). Emission factors in this scenario aim for an 8% reduction by 2030 and 30% by 2035. This is equivalent to emission factors dropping from 0.01612 in 2024 down to 0.0148304 in 2030, and 0.011284 in 2035. |
forecast | modest | 2.4672150070488703 |
|
IMO_DirectCompliance
IMO published a report on the future of shipping in 2025, which included an ambitious scenario for carbon costs above a defined roadmap of reductions. |
International Maritime Organization
In April 2025, the IMO agreed to draft regulations that will set mandatory marine fuel standard and GHG emissions pricing for shipping. Under the Direct Coompliance Scenario, emission factors aim for a 21% reduction by 2030 and 44% by 2035. This is equivalent to emission factors dropping from 0.01612 in 2024 down to 0.0127348 in 2030, and 0.0090272 in 2035. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.4672150070488703 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (historic) year=2024, pedigree_score=1.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from International Maritime Organization (forecast) year=2025, pedigree_score=2.4672150070488703.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source3 from International Maritime Organization (forecast) year=2025, pedigree_score=2.4672150070488703.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving freightinggoods sea container decarbonisation in Global?
Globally, the emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container in the freightinggoods category has moved only modestly from 2018 to 2024, effectively remaining flat with a tiny net decrease, a pattern noted by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (UK DESNZ, 2024). The 2025 forecast, however, signals a markedly different trajectory for all geographies as policy progress and market responses in international shipping mature. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) projects meaningful emissions reductions through 2030 and 2035 under its Direct Compliance Scenario, with reductions of about 21% by 2030 and 44% by 2035 relative to 2024 levels, indicating a shift from pure efficiency gains to price signals and fuel standards (IMO, 2025). This revised outlook rests on a trio of policy and market factors: (1) the IMO’s ongoing tightening of the policy framework, including drafting a mandatory global marine fuel standard and introducing GHG emissions pricing for shipping (IMO, 2025); (2) continued deployment of efficiency measures such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and slow steaming, which reduce fuel intensity; and (3) expanded use of marginal biofuel blends and other low-emission fuels as part of the decarbonization pathway (IMO, 2025). Collectively, these drivers explain why the global emission factor for freightinggoods_sea_container is forecast to decline more substantially over 2025–2035 than the modest changes suggested by 2018–2024 data.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
Questions, feedback, or reactions? Comment below (GitHub account required). Each trend has its own thread keyed to
global-sea-freight-container.
The thread is created automatically when someone posts the first comment.