External decarbonisation trends for utilities activities — curated sources, uncertainty ranges, and pathway-ready projections.
Australia
Australia is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. A key contribution to this target is the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 82% renewable electricity by 2030.
Australia
Australia’s utilities_electricity_grid residual factor could follow a sharper decarbonization path than the CER baseline suggests. Ember’s 2025 forecast envisions the residual market-based factor falling from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.75 by 2030 (Ember, 2025 Forecast), a roughly 19% reduction. This contrasts with CER’s projection of a gradual rise to about 0.98 by 2030 (CER, 2025 Forecast). The drivers underpinning a lower residual factor include: accelerated deployment of wind/solar and storage with ongoing coal retirements (AEMO, 2024); strengthened Safeguard Mechanism reforms tightening baselines for large emitters to accelerate abatement (DCCEEW, 2023–2025); rapid growth of corporate PPAs—around 60% of capacity contracted by 2025—locking in low-emission supply (Briggs, BRCA, 2025); and wholesale-market reforms and transmission investments that embed renewables into the market (AEMO, 2024). Together, these factors support a stronger decarbonization trajectory across au-nsw, au-vic, au-ql, au-sa, au-wa, au-tas, au-nt, and au-act.
United Kingdom
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
United Kingdom
UK’s utilities_electricity_grid residual factor could follow a sharper decarbonisation path than the CER baseline suggests. Ember’s 2025 forecast envisions the residual market-based factor falling from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.75 by 2030 (Ember, 2025 Forecast), a roughly 19% reduction. This contrasts with CER’s projection of a gradual rise to about 0.98 by 2030 (CER, 2025 Forecast). The drivers underpinning a lower residual factor include: accelerated deployment of wind/solar and storage with ongoing coal retirements (AEMO, 2024); strengthened Safeguard Mechanism reforms tightening baselines for large emitters to accelerate abatement (DCCEEW, 2023–2025); rapid growth of corporate PPAs—around 60% of capacity contracted by 2025—locking in low-emission supply (Briggs, BRCA, 2025); and wholesale-market reforms and transmission investments that embed renewables into the market (AEMO, 2024). Together, these factors support a stronger decarbonization trajectory across uk-england, uk-scotland, uk-wales, and uk-northernireland.
Global
Across all regions for utilities_water, 2025 DESNZ historic data show emission factors rose to 0.1913, following a dip in 2024 and a peak in 2023, yielding a net increase of around 28% from 2022 to 2025 (DESNZ, 2025). The year-to-year pattern suggests episodic electricity intensity tied to pumping and wastewater-treatment activity, with the 2024 decline reflecting gains from energy-efficiency measures and a progressively greener electricity mix for water operations (DESNZ, 2025). Policy and market factors are reinforcing this trajectory. Ofwat’s PR24 price controls explicitly incentivize energy efficiency, pumping upgrades, and energy recovery in treatment works to reduce carbon intensity (Ofwat, 2024). Concurrently, sector-wide Race to Net Zero roadmaps continue to push smarter operations and on-site generation in utilities, shaping investments that modulate emission factors over time (R2NZ, 2023–2025).
