Utilities Electricity Grid trends — United Kingdom (location-based)
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
- Category
- Utilities
- Geography
- United Kingdom
- Basis
- location-based
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kWh
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report) projects a -62% (-94MtCO2e) reduction in emissions from 2024 to 2030, and a -50% (-29MtCO2e) reduction from 2030 to 2040. In contrast, historical emission reductions (Ember) demonstrate a slower reduction per year.
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -1.2% | -4.4% | -7.2% |
| 2026 | -4.1% | -9.9% | -14.9% |
| 2027 | -7.0% | -14.8% | -21.6% |
| 2028 | -9.9% | -23.4% | -35.1% |
| 2029 | -12.7% | -34.5% | -53.5% |
| 2030 | -15.6% | -43.9% | -68.6% |
| 2031 | -18.5% | -45.7% | -69.4% |
| 2032 | -21.3% | -49.4% | -73.8% |
| 2033 | -24.2% | -51.9% | -76.2% |
| 2034 | -27.1% | -53.3% | -76.2% |
| 2035 | -30.0% | -58.1% | -82.7% |
| 2036 | -32.8% | -60.2% | -84.1% |
| 2037 | -35.7% | -62.1% | -85.2% |
| 2038 | -38.6% | -63.8% | -85.8% |
| 2039 | -41.5% | -65.2% | -85.9% |
| 2040 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2041 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2042 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2043 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2044 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2045 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2046 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2047 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2048 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2049 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
| 2050 | -44.3% | -67.6% | -87.9% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Weighted projection between a linear projection of historical national electricity emission factors (Ember) and Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report)
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DCCEEW_EmissionsProjection2024
Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report) projects a -62% (-94MtCO2e) reduction in emissions from 2024 to 2030, and a -50% (-29MtCO2e) reduction from 2030 to 2040, while at the same time electricity generation rises from 278TWh to 439 TWh from 2024 to 2040 (Figure 19). This corresponds to an emission factor change of -12% per year on average. |
TEST
Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report) projects a -62% (-94MtCO2e) reduction in emissions from 2024 to 2030, and a -50% (-29MtCO2e) reduction from 2030 to 2040, while at the same time electricity generation rises from 278TWh to 439 TWh from 2024 to 2040 (Figure 19). This corresponds to an emission factor change of -12% per year on average. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.45 |
|
Ember_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
Ember
Linear projection of historical factors. |
historic | base | 2.45 |
|
ElectrotechRevolution
Renewables > demand; consistent fossil displacement. |
Ember
Renewable generation consistently exceeds demand; fossil generation declines from 2025. Grid EF falls ~3.5%/yr to 2030 and ~4%/yr thereafter. |
forecast | very_ambitious | 3.8 |
|
PlateauDecade
Bumpy plateau; displacement delayed until retirements ramp. |
Ember
Renewables roughly match demand; fossils flat until 2030, then gradual decline (~2.5%/yr). |
forecast | moderate | 3.4 |
|
AIDemandSurge
Temporary EF rebound; later decline contingent on policy & retirements. |
EMaps
Counter to the Electrotech Revolution, if electricity demand surges (driven by AI and electrification of heat and transport) and outpaces new renewables generation, it is feasible that to ~2028: EF rises (~+0.5%/yr) then falls as fossil fuel generation retirements resume. |
forecast | pessimistic | 3 |
|
ViablePathway_WorstCase
This scenario assumes a 'fossil-fueled development' narrative with no future reduction in the electricity grid emission factor. |
ViablePathway_worstcase
This scenario assumes a 'fossil-fueled development' narrative with rapid growth in fossil fuel use, causing emissions to roughly double by 2050 and continue to rise. |
forecast | pessimistic | 3 |
Changelog
- — Initial version
Frequently asked questions
What is driving utilities electricity grid decarbonisation in United Kingdom?
UK is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. A key contribution to this target is the Net Zero Strategy to deliver on the government’s target to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor Weighted projection between a linear projection of historical national electricity emission factors (Ember) and Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report)
What range of outcomes does this trend cover?
Australia Emissions Projections (2024 report) projects a -62% (-94MtCO2e) reduction in emissions from 2024 to 2030, and a -50% (-29MtCO2e) reduction from 2030 to 2040. In contrast, historical emission reductions (Ember) demonstrate a slower reduction per year.
Discussion
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