Utilities Electricity Grid trends — United Kingdom (market-based)
UK’s utilities_electricity_grid residual factor could follow a sharper decarbonisation path than the CER baseline suggests. Ember’s 2025 forecast envisions the residual market-based factor falling from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.75 by 2030 (Ember, 2025 Forecast), a roughly 19% reduction. This contrasts with CER’s projection of a gradual rise to about 0.98 by 2030 (CER, 2025 Forecast). The drivers underpinning a lower residual factor include: accelerated deployment of wind/solar and storage with ongoing coal retirements (AEMO, 2024); strengthened Safeguard Mechanism reforms tightening baselines for large emitters to accelerate abatement (DCCEEW, 2023–2025); rapid growth of corporate PPAs—around 60% of capacity contracted by 2025—locking in low-emission supply (Briggs, BRCA, 2025); and wholesale-market reforms and transmission investments that embed renewables into the market (AEMO, 2024). Together, these factors support a stronger decarbonization trajectory across uk-england, uk-scotland, uk-wales, and uk-northernireland.
- Category
- Utilities
- Geography
- United Kingdom
- Basis
- market-based
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kWh
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 2.2% | 0.6% | -3.7% |
| 2027 | 3.3% | 0.7% | -7.4% |
| 2028 | 4.3% | 0.7% | -11.1% |
| 2029 | 5.4% | 0.7% | -14.8% |
| 2030 | 6.5% | 0.7% | -18.5% |
| 2031 | 7.6% | 1.3% | -18.5% |
| 2032 | 8.7% | 1.9% | -18.5% |
| 2033 | 9.8% | 2.6% | -18.5% |
| 2034 | 10.9% | 3.2% | -18.5% |
| 2035 | 12.0% | 3.8% | -18.5% |
| 2036 | 13.0% | 4.4% | -18.5% |
| 2037 | 14.1% | 5.1% | -18.5% |
| 2038 | 15.2% | 5.7% | -18.5% |
| 2039 | 16.3% | 6.3% | -18.5% |
| 2040 | 17.4% | 6.9% | -18.5% |
| 2041 | 18.5% | 7.6% | -18.5% |
| 2042 | 19.6% | 8.2% | -18.5% |
| 2043 | 20.7% | 8.8% | -18.5% |
| 2044 | 21.7% | 9.4% | -18.5% |
| 2045 | 22.8% | 10.1% | -18.5% |
| 2046 | 23.9% | 10.7% | -18.5% |
| 2047 | 25.0% | 11.3% | -18.5% |
| 2048 | 26.1% | 11.9% | -18.5% |
| 2049 | 27.2% | 12.6% | -18.5% |
| 2050 | 28.3% | 13.2% | -18.5% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DCCEEW_Historic
Historic progression of Market Based emissions factor, since DCCEEW started publicising in 2023. |
DCCEEW
Market based electricity emission factors for Australia have risen in recent years, from 0.91 in 2023 to 0.92 in 2025. This is due to the increased purchase of renewable energy contracts by corporates, leading the residual market based emission factor to potentially rise if fossil fuel generation remains. |
historic | base | 1 |
|
AIDemandSurge
A surge in demand from AI data centres outpaces the construction of new wind/solar, while tech giants "vacuum up" all available LGCs. Assumptions include: Demand: Data center load triples by 2030 (reaching ~12 TWh). PPA Squeeze: Hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) lock in 90% of all new large-scale projects. Fossil Necessity: Gas-fired "peakers" must run more often to support data center uptime, and coal retirements are delayed to ensure grid stability |
Australia Clean Energy Regulator
A scenario in which residual emission factors rise from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.98 in 2030. The CER is forecasting rising LGS but the majority (60% in 2025) of capacity is already accounted for with PPAs, according to the BRCA (Chris Briggs). |
forecast | ambitious | 2.997015273914126 |
|
ElectrotechRevolution
Federal and State targets (82% renewables) are met or exceeded, and the "Renewable Energy Transformation Agreements" successfully push coal out entirely. Assumptions: Over-Supply: The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) delivers 40 GW of new solar/batteries, creating a "surplus" of LGCs that outstrips corporate demand. Grid Collapse of Coal: Coal becomes economically unviable and retires earlier than planned. Residual Greenness: Even after PPAs are subtracted, the sheer volume of "unclaimed" rooftop solar and excess wind means the leftover pool is significantly cleaner. |
Ember
A scenario in which residual emission factors decrease from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.75 in 2030. Ember suggests this is one possible future for Australia. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.4672150070488703 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from DCCEEW (historic) year=2025, pedigree_score=1.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from Australia Clean Energy Regulator (forecast) year=2025, pedigree_score=2.997015273914126.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source3 from Ember (forecast) year=2025, pedigree_score=2.4672150070488703.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving utilities electricity grid decarbonisation in United Kingdom?
UK’s utilities_electricity_grid residual factor could follow a sharper decarbonisation path than the CER baseline suggests. Ember’s 2025 forecast envisions the residual market-based factor falling from 0.92 in 2025 to 0.75 by 2030 (Ember, 2025 Forecast), a roughly 19% reduction. This contrasts with CER’s projection of a gradual rise to about 0.98 by 2030 (CER, 2025 Forecast). The drivers underpinning a lower residual factor include: accelerated deployment of wind/solar and storage with ongoing coal retirements (AEMO, 2024); strengthened Safeguard Mechanism reforms tightening baselines for large emitters to accelerate abatement (DCCEEW, 2023–2025); rapid growth of corporate PPAs—around 60% of capacity contracted by 2025—locking in low-emission supply (Briggs, BRCA, 2025); and wholesale-market reforms and transmission investments that embed renewables into the market (AEMO, 2024). Together, these factors support a stronger decarbonization trajectory across uk-england, uk-scotland, uk-wales, and uk-northernireland.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
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