Purchasedgoodsandservicesmass Cement emission factor trends — Global
The updated IEA forecast for the cement sector reinforces the existing narrative of global decarbonization in cementitious materials. The Net Zero Scenario projects the cement emission factor to fall from about 575.7 kg CO2e/t in 2020 to roughly 446 kg CO2e/t by 2030 and to about 219 kg CO2e/t by 2040, implying reductions of roughly 23% by 2030 and about 62% by 2040 relative to 2020 (IEA, 2023). This trajectory sits alongside GCCA’s observed long-run trend, which shows the emission factor declining from 711 to 580 kg CO2/t cementitious between 2000 and 2022, i.e., an ~18% improvement over that period and evidence of ongoing global decarbonization in cementitious supply (GCCA, 2023). Taken together, the data point to accelerated decarbonization across regions and markets in the coming decade, consistent with broader policy, market, and technology shifts in the sector. Three primary dynamics are underpinning the observed trend and are likely to shape the next decade’s pace of reduction: - Blended cements with higher supplementary cementitious material (SCM) content are rising globally, lowering clinker demand and the associated process emissions per tonne of cementitious material (GCCA, 2023). The shift toward fly ash, slag, and natural pozzolans reduces emissions intensity while preserving performance. - Expanded use of alternative fuels in cement kilns is being tapped to improve energy security and waste-management outcomes, cutting fuel-related emissions and supporting lower overall emission intensity (IEA, 2023; GCCA, 2023). - Plant-level efficiency gains, including advanced preheater/calciner configurations and waste heat recovery, are complemented by emerging carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) pilots in cement plants, further reducing energy intensity and process emissions (IEA, 2023; GCCA, 2023). Policy and market context are reinforcing these drivers. Rising carbon prices and decarbonization mandates in major markets—coupled with explicit targets for low-carbon cement and clinker pathways—are incentivizing faster uptake of SCMs, alternative fuels, and energy-efficiency measures (IEA, 2023; European Commission, 2023). The convergence of policy signals, market adaptations, and technological progress suggests that the cement emission factor for purchased goods and services mass will continue to move lower across geographies and sectors, extending the downward trajectory documented by GCCA and projected by the IEA into the 2030s and 2040s.
- Category
- Materials
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kg
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -0.5% | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| 2026 | -1.1% | -2.9% | -4.9% |
| 2027 | -1.6% | -4.3% | -7.3% |
| 2028 | -2.1% | -5.8% | -9.7% |
| 2029 | -2.7% | -7.2% | -12.2% |
| 2030 | -3.2% | -8.7% | -14.6% |
| 2031 | -3.7% | -11.1% | -18.9% |
| 2032 | -4.3% | -13.4% | -23.3% |
| 2033 | -4.8% | -15.8% | -27.6% |
| 2034 | -5.4% | -18.2% | -31.9% |
| 2035 | -6.0% | -20.6% | -36.3% |
| 2036 | -6.5% | -22.9% | -40.6% |
| 2037 | -7.1% | -25.3% | -45.0% |
| 2038 | -7.7% | -27.7% | -49.3% |
| 2039 | -8.2% | -30.1% | -53.6% |
| 2040 | -8.8% | -32.5% | -58.0% |
| 2041 | -9.4% | -32.8% | -58.0% |
| 2042 | -10.0% | -33.1% | -58.0% |
| 2043 | -10.6% | -33.4% | -58.0% |
| 2044 | -11.2% | -33.7% | -58.0% |
| 2045 | -11.8% | -34.0% | -58.0% |
| 2046 | -12.4% | -34.3% | -58.0% |
| 2047 | -13.0% | -34.6% | -58.0% |
| 2048 | -13.6% | -35.0% | -58.0% |
| 2049 | -14.2% | -35.3% | -58.0% |
| 2050 | -14.9% | -35.6% | -58.0% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GCCA_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
Global Cement and Concrete Association
emission factor has reduced from 711 to 580 kg CO2 / t cementitious between 2000 and 2022 |
historic | base | 2.406733618270601 |
|
IEA_NetZeroScenario
The IEA Net Zero Scenario is an ambitious normative scenario that states what emission factor trends are needed for global net zero by 2050. |
IEA
The normative requirement for cement, to meet the IEA Net Zero Scenario, is a drop in emission factor from 575.7 in 2020 down to 445.98 in 2030, and 219.42 in 2040. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.5937174744148215 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from Global Cement and Concrete Association (historic) year=2022, pedigree_score=2.406733618270601.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from IEA (forecast) year=2022, pedigree_score=2.5937174744148215.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving purchasedgoodsandservicesmass cement decarbonisation in Global?
The updated IEA forecast for the cement sector reinforces the existing narrative of global decarbonization in cementitious materials. The Net Zero Scenario projects the cement emission factor to fall from about 575.7 kg CO2e/t in 2020 to roughly 446 kg CO2e/t by 2030 and to about 219 kg CO2e/t by 2040, implying reductions of roughly 23% by 2030 and about 62% by 2040 relative to 2020 (IEA, 2023). This trajectory sits alongside GCCA’s observed long-run trend, which shows the emission factor declining from 711 to 580 kg CO2/t cementitious between 2000 and 2022, i.e., an ~18% improvement over that period and evidence of ongoing global decarbonization in cementitious supply (GCCA, 2023). Taken together, the data point to accelerated decarbonization across regions and markets in the coming decade, consistent with broader policy, market, and technology shifts in the sector. Three primary dynamics are underpinning the observed trend and are likely to shape the next decade’s pace of reduction: - Blended cements with higher supplementary cementitious material (SCM) content are rising globally, lowering clinker demand and the associated process emissions per tonne of cementitious material (GCCA, 2023). The shift toward fly ash, slag, and natural pozzolans reduces emissions intensity while preserving performance. - Expanded use of alternative fuels in cement kilns is being tapped to improve energy security and waste-management outcomes, cutting fuel-related emissions and supporting lower overall emission intensity (IEA, 2023; GCCA, 2023). - Plant-level efficiency gains, including advanced preheater/calciner configurations and waste heat recovery, are complemented by emerging carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) pilots in cement plants, further reducing energy intensity and process emissions (IEA, 2023; GCCA, 2023). Policy and market context are reinforcing these drivers. Rising carbon prices and decarbonization mandates in major markets—coupled with explicit targets for low-carbon cement and clinker pathways—are incentivizing faster uptake of SCMs, alternative fuels, and energy-efficiency measures (IEA, 2023; European Commission, 2023). The convergence of policy signals, market adaptations, and technological progress suggests that the cement emission factor for purchased goods and services mass will continue to move lower across geographies and sectors, extending the downward trajectory documented by GCCA and projected by the IEA into the 2030s and 2040s.
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Discussion
Questions, feedback, or reactions? Comment below (GitHub account required). Each trend has its own thread keyed to
global-cement.
The thread is created automatically when someone posts the first comment.