Purchasedgoodsandservicesmass Concrete emission factor trends — Global
Historically the concrete industry has been a major emitter of CO2, but the emission factor has reduced from 252.9 to 234.1 kg CO2 / m3 between 2019 and 2024 according to the ICE Database v3. The 2024 forecast from the IEA's Net Zero Scenario projects further decarbonization of cement (which accounts for the majority of concrete emissions), reducing the factor to roughly 205 kg CO2e/m3 by 2030, about 162 kg by 2035, and about 119 kg by 2040, assuming cement represents ~85% of concrete emissions by weight (IEA Net Zero Scenario; Update trigger). This trajectory aligns with policy and market drivers: the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and rising EU ETS carbon prices are accelerating shifts toward lower-emission cement and the use of supplementary cementitious materials and blended cements, reinforcing the decarbonization pathway described by the IEA (European Commission CBAM; IEA Net Zero Scenario).
- Category
- Materials
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kg
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -1.6% | -1.8% | -2.1% |
| 2026 | -3.2% | -3.6% | -4.1% |
| 2027 | -4.8% | -5.4% | -6.2% |
| 2028 | -6.4% | -7.2% | -8.3% |
| 2029 | -8.0% | -9.0% | -10.4% |
| 2030 | -9.6% | -10.9% | -12.4% |
| 2031 | -11.2% | -13.4% | -16.1% |
| 2032 | -12.8% | -15.9% | -19.8% |
| 2033 | -14.5% | -18.4% | -23.5% |
| 2034 | -16.1% | -20.9% | -27.2% |
| 2035 | -17.7% | -23.4% | -30.9% |
| 2036 | -19.3% | -25.9% | -34.6% |
| 2037 | -20.9% | -28.4% | -38.2% |
| 2038 | -22.5% | -30.9% | -41.9% |
| 2039 | -24.1% | -33.5% | -45.6% |
| 2040 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2041 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2042 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2043 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2044 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2045 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2046 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2047 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2048 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2049 | -25.7% | -36.0% | -49.3% |
| 2050 | — | — | -49.3% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DESNZ_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Linear projection of historical factors of Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) concrete - CEM I based - with total cementitious content of 240 kg per m3 of concrete. |
historic | base | 1.61 |
|
IEA_NetZeroScenario
The IEA Net Zero Scenario is an ambitious normative scenario that states what emission factor trends are needed for global net zero by 2050. |
IEA
Assuming that cement makes up 85% of emissions from concrete by weight, assuming all else stays the same for the aggregates and admixtures, the IEA's Net Zero Scenario for cement would lead to a reduction in concrete's emission factor from 234.1 in 2024 to 204.97 in 2030, 161.82 in 2035, and 118.68 in 2040. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.0935394936411775 |
Changelog
- — Initialized MAX from first source (ICE historical projection).
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=26); appended source2 from IEA (forecast) year=2024, pedigree_score=2.0935394936411775.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving purchasedgoodsandservicesmass concrete decarbonisation in Global?
Historically the concrete industry has been a major emitter of CO2, but the emission factor has reduced from 252.9 to 234.1 kg CO2 / m3 between 2019 and 2024 according to the ICE Database v3. The 2024 forecast from the IEA's Net Zero Scenario projects further decarbonization of cement (which accounts for the majority of concrete emissions), reducing the factor to roughly 205 kg CO2e/m3 by 2030, about 162 kg by 2035, and about 119 kg by 2040, assuming cement represents ~85% of concrete emissions by weight (IEA Net Zero Scenario; Update trigger). This trajectory aligns with policy and market drivers: the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and rising EU ETS carbon prices are accelerating shifts toward lower-emission cement and the use of supplementary cementitious materials and blended cements, reinforcing the decarbonization pathway described by the IEA (European Commission CBAM; IEA Net Zero Scenario).
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
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