Purchasedgoodsandservicesmass Steel emission factor trends — Global
Global, embodied emissions in purchased steel goods have eased modestly as buyers and producers continue decarbonizing supply chains. According to the IEA, the steel-related emission factor in purchased goods and services fell roughly 3–4% across 2010–2022, a trend driven by more recycled steel, greater use of electric-arc furnaces (EAF), efficiency gains in steel production, and the decarbonization of electricity grids in key markets—all underpinned by policy levers such as carbon pricing and low-carbon procurement standards. For global purchasers, these shifts translate into lower cradle-to-gate emissions for steel-intensive inputs and clearer opportunities to curb scope 3 emissions by preferentially selecting low-emission suppliers and materials. The 2022–2030 outlook for construction materials reinforces this trajectory: the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario forecasts a substantial reduction in cement emission factors (from 1.41 in 2022 to 1.07 by 2030, and around 0.439 by 2040), signaling stronger decarbonization momentum across energy-intensive inputs that, while targeting cement, mirrors the broader policy and market direction shaping steel procurement (IEA Net Zero Scenario). These dynamics are consistent with the ongoing shift in steel supply chains toward lower-emission inputs as procurement criteria tighten and market incentives align with decarbonization. Driving factors include: broader adoption of scrap-based steel production and higher EAF participation, supported by recycling infrastructure and policies (World Steel Association); continuing decarbonization of electricity generation that reduces energy-intensity in steelmaking (IEA Electricity Market Report); and policy instruments such as carbon pricing and low-carbon procurement standards that reward low-emission steel supply (IEA framing and European procurement frameworks, e.g., Green Public Procurement criteria). In addition, pilot and demonstration efforts in low-emission steelmaking—such as hydrogen-based direct reduction projects—signal feasible pathways for deeper decarbonization in the medium term (HYBRIT consortium).
- Category
- Materials
- Geography
- Global
- Unit
- kgCO2e / kg
- Baseline
- Baseline 2024 → 2050
- Last updated
- Updated
Regions covered: All regions
Projection chart
Cumulative percentage change in the emission factor from the 2024 baseline. Shaded band shows min–max range; bold line is the Viable Pathway mid projection.
Data table (Viable mid projection)
| Year | Min | Viable mid | Max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | -0.1% | -1.4% | -3.2% |
| 2026 | -0.3% | -2.7% | -6.3% |
| 2027 | -0.4% | -4.1% | -9.5% |
| 2028 | -0.6% | -5.5% | -12.6% |
| 2029 | -0.7% | -6.8% | -15.8% |
| 2030 | -0.9% | -8.2% | -18.9% |
| 2031 | -1.0% | -10.2% | -23.7% |
| 2032 | -1.2% | -12.2% | -28.5% |
| 2033 | -1.3% | -14.3% | -33.3% |
| 2034 | -1.5% | -16.3% | -38.1% |
| 2035 | -1.7% | -18.3% | -42.9% |
| 2036 | -1.8% | -20.3% | -47.6% |
| 2037 | -2.0% | -22.3% | -52.4% |
| 2038 | -2.1% | -24.4% | -57.2% |
| 2039 | -2.3% | -26.4% | -62.0% |
| 2040 | -2.4% | -28.4% | -66.8% |
| 2041 | -2.6% | -28.5% | -66.8% |
| 2042 | -2.7% | -28.6% | -66.8% |
| 2043 | -2.9% | -28.7% | -66.8% |
| 2044 | -3.0% | -28.8% | -66.8% |
| 2045 | -3.2% | -28.9% | -66.8% |
| 2046 | -3.3% | -29.0% | -66.8% |
| 2047 | -3.5% | -29.0% | -66.8% |
| 2048 | -3.6% | -29.1% | -66.8% |
| 2049 | -3.8% | -29.2% | -66.8% |
| 2050 | -4.0% | -29.3% | -66.8% |
How the Viable mid projection is calculated
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
Sources and scenarios
| Scenario | Source | Type | Ambition | Pedigree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
IEA_Historic
Historic reductions from previous years projected linearly forwards. |
IEA
the emission factor has reduced from 1.46 to 1.41 t CO2 / t steel between 2010 and 2022 according to the IEA. |
historic | base | 1.7579505932823387 |
|
IEA_NetZeroScenario
The IEA Net Zero Scenario is an ambitious normative scenario that states what emission factor trends are needed for global net zero by 2050. |
IEA
The normative requirement for cement, to meet the IEA Net Zero Scenario, is a drop in emission factor from 1.41 in 2022 down to 1.07 in 2030, and 0.438713 in 2040. |
forecast | ambitious | 2.5937174744148215 |
Changelog
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source1 from IEA (historic) year=2022, pedigree_score=1.7579505932823387.
- — Updated vpmid mid from blended projection (len=27); appended source2 from IEA (forecast) year=2022, pedigree_score=2.5937174744148215.
Frequently asked questions
What is driving purchasedgoodsandservicesmass steel decarbonisation in Global?
Global, embodied emissions in purchased steel goods have eased modestly as buyers and producers continue decarbonizing supply chains. According to the IEA, the steel-related emission factor in purchased goods and services fell roughly 3–4% across 2010–2022, a trend driven by more recycled steel, greater use of electric-arc furnaces (EAF), efficiency gains in steel production, and the decarbonization of electricity grids in key markets—all underpinned by policy levers such as carbon pricing and low-carbon procurement standards. For global purchasers, these shifts translate into lower cradle-to-gate emissions for steel-intensive inputs and clearer opportunities to curb scope 3 emissions by preferentially selecting low-emission suppliers and materials. The 2022–2030 outlook for construction materials reinforces this trajectory: the IEA’s Net Zero Scenario forecasts a substantial reduction in cement emission factors (from 1.41 in 2022 to 1.07 by 2030, and around 0.439 by 2040), signaling stronger decarbonization momentum across energy-intensive inputs that, while targeting cement, mirrors the broader policy and market direction shaping steel procurement (IEA Net Zero Scenario). These dynamics are consistent with the ongoing shift in steel supply chains toward lower-emission inputs as procurement criteria tighten and market incentives align with decarbonization. Driving factors include: broader adoption of scrap-based steel production and higher EAF participation, supported by recycling infrastructure and policies (World Steel Association); continuing decarbonization of electricity generation that reduces energy-intensity in steelmaking (IEA Electricity Market Report); and policy instruments such as carbon pricing and low-carbon procurement standards that reward low-emission steel supply (IEA framing and European procurement frameworks, e.g., Green Public Procurement criteria). In addition, pilot and demonstration efforts in low-emission steelmaking—such as hydrogen-based direct reduction projects—signal feasible pathways for deeper decarbonization in the medium term (HYBRIT consortium).
How does Viable Pathway calculate the mid projection?
Weighted projection based on pedigree quality assessments, normalised to 2024 emission factor
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