Decarbonisation of USA electricity — usa (location-based)

The Counterfactual Baseline case (formerly known as the Reference case) represents how U.S. and world energy markets would operate through 2050 under laws and regulations in force as of December 2025. The key assumptions of the Counterfactual Baseline case provide an experimental control for exploring long-term trends. An overview of the laws and regulations as well as assumptions included in the AEO2026 are available on the AEO website. It should not be regarded as the most likely of the cases.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors.

The High Economic Growth case address the effects of economic assumptions on energy consumption modeled in AEO2026. From 2025 to 2050, the High Economic Growth case assumes the compound annual growth rate for U.S. GDP is 2.2%. By contrast, the Counterfactual Baseline case assumes the U.S. GDP annual growth rate is 1.7% over the projection period.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors.

The Low Economic Growth case address the effects of economic assumptions on energy consumption modeled in AEO2026. From 2025 to 2050, the Low Economic Growth case assumes a 1.2% rate. By contrast, the Counterfactual Baseline case assumes the U.S. GDP annual growth rate is 1.7% over the projection period.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

Compared with the Counterfactual Baseline case, the High Oil and Gas Supply case assumes that the estimated ultimate recovery per well for tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas in the United States is 50% higher. Similarly, this case assumes that undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore Lower 48 states are 50% greater than assumed in the Counterfactual Baseline case. Technological improvement rates that reduce costs and increase productivity of oil and natural gas production in the United States are also 50% higher than assumed in the Counterfactual Baseline case.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

Compared with the Counterfactual Baseline case, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case assumes that the estimated ultimate recovery per well for tight oil, tight gas, or shale gas in the United States is 50% lower. Similarly, this case assumes that undiscovered resources in Alaska and the offshore Lower 48 states are 50% lower than assumed in the Counterfactual Baseline case. Technological improvement rates that reduce costs and increase productivity of oil and natural gas production in the United States are also 50% lower than assumed in the Counterfactual Baseline case.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

To address the uncertainty in the future costs of power generation technologies that produce zero emissions, AEO2026 provides a case where technology costs are higher than those in the Counterfactual Baseline case. In the High Zero-carbon Technology Cost case, the overnight capital cost is held constant at the 2025 level throughout the projection period for all of the technologies listed in the Case Description document.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

To address the uncertainty in the future costs of power generation technologies that produce zero emissions, AEO2026 provides a case where technology costs are lower than those in the Counterfactual Baseline case. In the Low Zero-carbon Technology Cost case, we assume overnight capital costs and fixed operating and maintenance (O&M) costs decline more rapidly than in the Counterfactual Baseline case, falling 40% below their Counterfactual Baseline case equivalents by 2050 for all of these technologies.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

The AEO2026 High Electricity Demand case examines uncertainty about long-term computational requirements and data center server power draw across the commercial building stock. To develop this case, we updated the Commercial Demand Module to report data center server energy use separately from the broader category of commercial computing. In this case, we assume growth in the installed stock of AI servers follows an exponential trend through 2050 and electricity use to support data centers is more intensive than we assume in our Counterfactual Baseline case. We make no additional assumptions about increases in computational efficiency over time, beyond what is present in historical trends.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

The Alternative Electricity case assumes the Clean Air Act (CAA) Section 111 rule implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2024 to regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new natural gas-fired combustion turbines and existing coal-, oil-, and gas-fired steam generating units is not in place, and the affected generators no longer have federal restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. In this case, existing coal-fired plants continue operating without requiring modifications to reduce emissions, and generation from new natural gas-fired combined cycle units isn’t constrained based on whether the plant has installed carbon capture equipment.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

The Alternative Electricity case assumes the Clean Air Act (CAA) Section 111 rule implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2024 to regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new natural gas-fired combustion turbines and existing coal-, oil-, and gas-fired steam generating units is not in place, and the affected generators no longer have federal restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. In this case, existing coal-fired plants continue operating without requiring modifications to reduce emissions, and generation from new natural gas-fired combined cycle units isn’t constrained based on whether the plant has installed carbon capture equipment.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).

The Alternative Electricity and Alternative Transportation Combination case further explores the impact of policy uncertainty by combining the assumptions in the Alternative Electricity and Alternative Transportation cases.

The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) explores medium- and long-term alternative futures in the United States. AEO2026 is published in accordance with statutory provisions requiring the Administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an annual report on energy consumption and supply. These projections are used by federal, state, and local governments; industry; trade associations; and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. Emission factors are extracted and calculated based on data in Table 8 (Electricity: Electric Power Sector: Net Available to the Grid) and Table 18 (Carbon Dioxide: Electric Power: Total).